Coronavirus impact

• Due to COVID the euro dollar has oscillated with tremendous acceleration. It would first react to the downside due to an unprecedented crisis in Europe where every investor in fear should take positions in dollars (1) from the beginning of 2020
• Giventhe conversion of danger to Global and with a high probability that it will hit the USA squarely, the US government would take out the wallet, with an unprecedented injection of dollars ( up to $ 2 trillion ) and eliminating all previous interest rate increases until leaving it at 0.
  This would provoke a second reaction against the dollar and in favor of the euro and all other currencies (2). If you see each time you are close to the price exceeding the thick black line, if the trend is downward as the current one, it tends to turn the value and bounces strongly downward. In this case it would be a while before this happened.
• Then we have had the rebound to the drop in foreign exchange due to the normalization of the pandemic. Also the injection of Europe from the ECB has had quite an effect on playing the cards in favor of the dollar again (3) with purchases of 500,000 million euros .

¿Que va a pasar a partir de ahora?

Ahora mismo estaríamos en una cuarta fase en la que en Europa se esta saliendo ya de la pandemia y en USA están todavía sin llegar al pico de casos con una curva que puede agravarse. Si se agravase la curva los índices bursátiles ( SP500 , DOW Y NASDAQ) comenzarían a bajar para dibujar una onda 5 bajista que lo más probable es que toque los mínimos anteriores para luego rebotar con fuerza. Si se diera este caso estaríamos en el escenario 2 en verde. Con una bajada que saliese fuera del canal bajista para luego rebotar y volver a entrar en el.

En caso de que vayamos saliendo de la pandemia lentamente y no se realicen bruscos cambios en el número de contagios estaríamos en el 1 en verde.
Con esto en ambos casos tenemos una tendencia en contra del dólar debido a las grandes bajadas que ha experimentado el cambio y debido a que USA va a salir después de la crisis aunque USA esta muchísimo más fuerte que Europa y tiene muchos más medios para aguantar estas eventualidades. Con ello en cuanto toque el canal por arriba muy seguramente volvamos a la tónica general con un dólar que se va a hacer mucho más fuerte para 2021. Muy a pesar de lo que le guste o no le guste a Trump. Además hay elecciones en USA este año con lo que si ganase además el candidato demócrata creo que el dólar podría subir mucho más aún, aunque esto ya es una opinión mía.

Short-term Technical Analysis

As can be seen, we are in a small lateral channel after the return to the falls of the euro due to the meetings to inject new money as well as the meetings for Eurobonds to the countries most hit by the pandemic such as Italy and Spain. Also the fear of a few days ago because the coronavirus has already arrived in the USA.
From there the rebound is born, 1: 1.08 . With the case curve going down in Europe and the perception that we are going to improve overall, investors are undoing their positions in dollars, and the euro is going to emerge stronger in the coming days. You have to watch the short-term bearish envelope that is seen in the image where it is about to pass it and there will already be free to reach maximums around 1: 1,103 .
From there and in the coming months it is expected that the dollar will gradually continue to climb positions and continue in its long-term bearish channel since the economy in the USA is much stronger than in Europe right now.