Recent and fundamental context

Unicaja was the commercial name of Monte de Piedad and Caja de Ahorros de Ronda, Cádiz, Almería, Málaga, Antequera and Jaén, a Spanish savings bank based in Málaga. In 2011, it transferred its financial activity to Unicaja Banco.
On December 1, 2011, the savings bank representative to all the previous cities signed the deed for the constitution of its under. In 2011 the Caja España-Duero assembly would approve the merger with Unicaja.
In December 2012, it would still not merge due to Unicaja's request to have more power in the entity.
In May 2013 the merger would be launched thanks to the approval of the Bank of Spain.
In March 2014, it would absorb the CEISS bank and convert it into a subsidiary.
On July 30 Unicaja would go public with a price of 1.10 euros per share and after that it would pocket 660 million euros as it would take new shares. After this Unicaja Foundation would reduce its weight to 51% leaving the rest of shares between funds and shareholders imnoritarios. With this money I would pay the 600 million dollars that the state injected into Caja Duero.
In September 2018, the merger by absorption of Spain Duero would be made official, 7 years after carrying out the relevant procedures.
In December 2018 Unicaja Banco and Liberbank would recognize their intention to merge. From that time until now there has been more or less consensus on the idea, however Liberbank has also felt the merger with other banks such as Abanca but due to the refusal to give more power to Liberbank there was also a higher result of synergies that with Unicaja. Since then this issue is still being discussed and, given the refusal of both parties, the price has suffered a lot, as we will see below.

From the fundamental data, it can be seen how the bank is improving little by little with a profit that increased 10% from 2017 to 2018. Not so its capitalization that has been falling in these two years until arrive almost to half of the maximum that I get to get in 2018, around € 1.5 . The situation of the bank has paradoxically improved and right now it is stagnating with a performance that has not surpassed previous results due to the European monetary policy of low interest rates.

That said, the normal thing is that after the great pressure in the stock market on the value should return to the average value of the action of € 1 per share. From there depending on whether in October the intentions of the one who carries the ECB's address change, it could rise to recover the maximum in a short time. Only with a rate hike of 0.25 with the intention of a gradual rise would give the banking sector a lot of strength. It depends to a large extent on the evolution of Germany's industrial performance as the decision to delay this rate hike is undoubtedly her. And this past month there was already a good symptom of increased productivity in Germany, with the increase after 6 consecutive months of decline of the manufacturing index there. And it is that if the engine of the EU is swollen is not good to ask for a greater effort raising the cost of financing new projects . We will have to wait as the last months of the year evolve.

Technical Analysis

If we look at the long-term chart we see a depletion in sales downwards. The indicators have stopped and have stopped right in the long-term channel resistance. Right now we would be facing a rebound, which could be something more than a rebound considering that this bank is one of the most punished of all those who quote. A part has the added point in its favor to be one of the first candidates to experience mergers with other banks and banks that should raise the value without any doubt. The rebound should be aimed at the euro, but could be € 0.93 as the first objective that insurance will get. You have to bear in mind the evolution of the IBEX35, which has 9700 points as its target and which, possibly when it reaches this point, drops to 9000 points again to catch oxygen. More marked by the political instability that still exists and with a government that does not have a sufficient majority in principle.

If we analyze the short-term value, we see the break of the bearish scenario, and the introduction of a new bullish channel with a very slight slope that could be following all summer. Meanwhile the most sensible thing is to keep the value up to € 0.93 . It would not even be unreasonable to average now to withdraw a part according to the IBEX exceeding 9500.