Recent and fundamental context

Currently Repsol is at a maximum of five years, it has a huge strength. Due to the progressive rise of oil, it has recovered its previous values, when in 2015 it fell from € 18 and lost the support of € 16. Such a large drop endangered the viability of the company and it was doubtful if the selling pressure would be there for a long time. However, two years later there were agreements between the major oil producers, especially Russia and Saudi Arabia, whose reserves together exceed half of those that exist and whose production exceeds 60% of the total. Saudi Arabia would freeze production first and then reduce it to 30 million barrels per day. In that period with the barrel around 30 $ Repsol came to fall to € 7.5 and would have serious problems in the coming years. He also acquired the Talismán company (energy company of the oil sector of Canada) and what at first seemed a very serious decision then with the new economic prospects for the rise in the price of oil, due to the decline in world production.

Since then, it has been a constant rise in which stocks have risen 300% from minimums, something unusual for a company of such size. In addition to saying that Repsol is the company that gives the most dividend, about 10% per year. Below I present the data of fundamentals that I think are most important:

• Capitalizasion
• Net Benefit
• EBDITA
• Deuda/Ebdita
• PER

If we look at the table we will see how the EBDITA has increased the last two years close to 20% with respect to minimums in 2015. This is very good news. Thanks to this, the debt in comparison with the EBDITA has fallen. This is a very important indicator because it shows the real financial strength of the company. Specifically, it has been reduced by 50% compared to 2014, and has allowed it to finance new projects and increase its debt. Right now he is allocating large amounts to develop other renewable energy uses or improve those that already exist. Even so there is no data on the part of the company of the achievements then it could be a gesture facing the gallery.

Due to how oil is rising and electric cars are not coming to market with the speed that was expected we can extend the performance of this type of companies at least until 2025, although once they are more widespread they will surely start to hit this values. That's why in the long term my estimate is not good, if it does not manage to transform into another type of company.

Technical analysis

Firstly, I will show a long-term chart showing the decline that I have made since 2014, the subsequent rebound when I see how repsol presented results for the first time in which the debt was down and a very ambitious strategic plan and the later fall in 2015 to minimums due to the sinking of oil that reached $ 30 and greatly affected oil companies around the world such as BP, TOTAL in France, Shale's in the USA, and other giants of the sector. You can also see how is a cyclical value and every 3 or 4 years changes the trend for international situations having a very defined channel.

After making double ground began its upward trend where the value would go climbing to the maximum of the IBEX35 when Macron won the election and all European indices soared. There would reach the current resitence beat at the end of 2017 and if you look at the new bullish channel has broken up the long-term bearish trend, which began 10 years ago in 2008. In fact, that downtrend could not even be considered as such because if we add the dividends that have been paying year after year we could find how the company has grown gradually and could be a positive trend . What is clear is that after the break has caused a positive pulse of inflection that will give very good perspective to the value of here at least until 2020. It is also one of the few IBEX companies that is not so related to what has happened in Spain, as it has just come down afterwards.



If we go to a medium-term chart we can see that it has been playing on a side channel between € 16 and € 17 and that after touching the resistance line and there are no events that motivate a general rise of the IBEX should correct again until 16 and try again on another occasion. With this we would avoid a 7% drop if we wanted to enter again and we could earn close to 12% on the next raise by adjusting the stops well. In fact, if you beat the resistance marked in blue, you could go directly to the search for € 20.