Recent and fundamental context

Gamesa is a Spanish multinational company dedicated to the development, maintenance, design and research of wind turbines. It has been listed on the stock exchange since 2000 and one year later it would become part of the IBEX35. Its headquarters is in the Basque country where it began to roll.

In 1976 Gamesa was founded, which was in charge of supporting other companies in the aeronautical sector. In 1994, Gamesa Eólica was created as a wind turbine assembly company. In 1996 the first wind farm would start up. It would begin with an agreement with the Danish multinational Vestas, which today is the world's largest wind energy leader, followed by Gamesa.

This company would give information to Gamesa and follow their projects to take profit together and limit their venues to the countries most partners of Spain such as the countries of South America and the north of AFrica.

In 2003, it would buy Endesa's wind division and all its patents to obtain a monopoly of the sector in Spain. In 2006 it would sell the aeronautical division to Aernnova Aerospace, a Castilian Manchega company to focus solely on the wind sector.

In the next decade it would be able to expand all over the world, supplying wind turbines in addition to the countries of North Africa, South America and Europe, to almost all Asian countries. In addition to increasing its presence in the United States thanks to the investment of this country in renewable energy by the hand of Barack Obama.

However, in 2011, with the global crisis, its price would fall to the minimum expression of 1 euro, beginning to question the feasibility of the project due to the cost that had been put into wind power in auctions and the loss of subsidies in the sector. renewable in Spain.

As of 2012, it would begin to recover and in 1 year it would begin to create record profits and start making thousands of contracts for new projects. The EBDITA would only grow and would be one of the revealing companies in the IBEX with an annual growth of 100% in 3 consecutive years passing the historical lows of 230 million euros to 617 to 1,500 million a end of 2013. From 2015 to 2016 it would be worth 1,500-2,000 million to be worth almost 5,000 million. In 2016 its capitalization would reach 6,000 million and is currently worth more than 7,000 after its merger with Siemenes Renovables .

That means a revaluation of more than 3,200%. In other words, if someone had invested 10,000 euros in the 2012 minimums and still had the shares that he bought, he would have 320,000 euros today .

These last two years after the merger with Siemens have not been good on the stock market, where shares have fallen to half of what they were worth, going from 22 euros to touch the 8.5 euros in 2017 and despite the rebound have returned to play 9 euros. All this as a result of a profit warning due to several failed projects in India and perspectives not very good for the sector. However, this type of company is difficult not to create profits and as you can see year after year the benefits increase although they do not grow in the same way as it has gone from having benefits that grew at least 25% per year to be the same benefits as the previous year or less. This the market has not liked and when such a large company grows without rest it is normal that a year comes when investors move their money to invest in other securities that have higher potential or simply withdraw it to re-enter at a lower price attractive.

Here I present the data of fundamentals that I think are most important:

• Capitalization
• Net Profit
• EBDITA: It is the best indicator of GAMESA where it beats many of the IBEX35 companies.
• Debt / Ebdita: It is one of the best indicators since Gamesa has almost always had superhabit since the maintenance of the mills is very low and the only thing they consume is wind that is free so the money goes to pay the payroll and materials that cost the mills that are already profitable in 1 year.
• PER

Technical analysis

If we look at the long-term chart we see a large V typical of cyclic values like this. In it we have a minimum at the beginning of 2016 around 10 euros. This value is now the maximum support that we find in the value and that today should not be exceeded. We are now at a crossroads. On the one hand, due to the bearish spiral of the global indexes where the Dow Jones broke supports the value could go down to lows, although the situation in the company is much better than when low as the viability of the company is assured.

If confirmed the break of the first support at 20 euros it would be best to wait to enter the area near the 10 euros with a stop of 10% on minimum. The probability of this happening is less than 50%, so the appropriate strategy would be to keep and not invest or divest anything in this value.



If we look at the short-term chart where the 2018 price is reflected, we see an upward channel until 2014 that would be cut at the end of May and it would be our new point of reference, since after a large fall and a previous extension or merger It is necessary to know exactly where we are. After it would come a correction of more than 33% and its corresponding rebound that would not convince and would go to the next support that is none other than the minimum so the whole walking path would be retraced.

After the fall would come purchases with a lot of volume in a few days that would accelerate the value of the stock. However they could not with the previous maximum that had been overcome would suppose a figure of hchi (Inverted Shoulder Head Shoulder) that would have been a very bullish signal and surely could have been in that momentum with the maximum at 14, 5 euros. It was not like that and if the hchi is a clear buy signal that the second shoulder is shorter than the first one as it did in this case it is a very bearish signal and the value is will go to look for minimums. Knowing this I do not have the slightest doubt that he will go to find the 9 euros to then bounce and form a new side channel. That is why in this environment, if the value stabilizes, it will be a good purchase window.