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Recent and fundamental context

ia went public in 2012. Since then it went up in an amazing way, in line with the Spanish market. Start in 2 euros and reaching 7 euros in mid 2013. Almost 300% rise in 1 year and a half . Soon it would pass to the IBEX35, and a little later in mid-2014 it would correct returning to 4 Euro and from there in 2014 with the minimum interest rates and with the europe indexes recovering their levels prior to the banking crisis of 2008, it would reach the 8 euros.

This value has always been considered defensive but considering how the variation has been over time, even if it belongs to a sector such as food, it is quite unstable.

From that rise would begin the downward path. It would begin correcting arriving at the key support of the 4 euros and returning to recover. It would walk a path in a side road with several ups and downs, especially because of the doubts it presented after presenting many negative results. The descent was also after the crisis in South America, first Brazil and then Argentina where the group has a lot of presence.

In the summer of 2017 a Russian tycoon would take 10% of the company, rising to 25% in one day . After this purchase it is not yet known with what intentions the shorts would increase the pressure, this value being the one that has the most short funds, with 15% of the possession of all the shares as a minimum. In February 2018, after presenting very negative results, the support of 4 Euro would be lost. From there, it would enter a spiral of unprecedented downturns with an attempt to recover the € 4 and having changed several managers. But he did not get it and the shorts would continue to exert a devastating pressure with the value that would take him to lose 2 Euro. Below I present the data of fundamentals that I find most important:

Fundamental Analysis Dia




###20142015201620172018
Deuda/ Caja empresa
Total Debt (M)7.0055.1135.2607.360##
Beneficio/valor acción
Capitalization(M)1.4379391.1481.2571.449
EBDITA (M)585609611569501
PER4,885,005,265,567,69
Net Benefit(M)255249236224161
Dividend11211212411293
Profitability per share-3,76%4,79%5,25%9%
Debt/EBDITA0,911,51,651,562,06

If we look at the table it is observed that l of all the data the most attractive is the PER and the low debt of the company. But on the other hand the benefits have already been three down with this last year falling almost 33% compared to the previous one. That affects in a very worrying way in the current quote.



Technical analysis

If we look at the long-term chart we observe the different moments of the quote that have been shown before and something very particular. And is that after the break of the support crossed the lines twice and all the indicators presaged that the recovery of value from 3 Euro would begin. The fact is that many retailers came looking for this and found that they still fell by 33% more to 2 Euro . And losing this support would be when many shareholders sold out before the panic that the company would present a new profit warning, on the way to a possible liquidation by the company. It is there where the value has been sheltered in a new channel that goes from € 1.8 to € 2.3.

eco_dia_1Y

If we go to a medium-term chart we can see how from the end of August the last bearish channel that started at 4 euros is broken. That signal is unequivocal that we will no longer see the value below the € 1.8 support except bad news from some HR.

What has not broken is the long-term bearish line for which it opened that today to break the second resistance of 2.7 €. If right now I would have to decide what to do, it would be to hold positions and not buy shares or to overweight my positions until I exceed the first resistance of 2.3 € . That would be the purchase window .

eco_dia_1D_2017_2018


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