Crisis in Catalonia

At the beginning of the year, one of the biggest turbulence in Catalan values ​​in the history of the Spanish stock market began. This was due to the attempt of the Catalan institutions to hold a referendum in a clandestine manner in which only a part of Catalan society would vote. This would strain the price of Catalan companies and values, due to the future punishment of their clients.

The consequences would take time to arrive but as messages were being sent by certain actors belonging to the independence world, the capitalization of companies based in Catalonia would begin to notice a serious setback.

And it is that Catalonia thanks to the support of the Spanish state this last decade has experienced a growth never seen in history. In particular the last year before 2017 banks and many companies and tourism had experienced great growth, overflowing expectations and even forcing the rejection of neighbors because although the economy of many rose others had problems coexisting in their neighborhoods due to the increase of prices and massification.

All the disadvantages of having a super economy were taken advantage of by the pro-independence movement under the direction of politicians accused of corruption, embezzlement and illegal financing, such as the politicians who have been governing this community for decades. So thanks to the policies of separation and indoctrination of the Catalan government in the last 15 years in schools and public institutions has been radicalized to those nationalists who only wanted more self-government and money and other people who are not yet nationalists They have a very precarious economic situation. This last group formed by working class and working class people have associated their problems to the belonging to their country and have been approaching other formations such as ERC.

ERC always against the Catalan bourgeoisie and the main party of Catalonia has changed its strategy in recent times in order to tighten the relationship with the organs of the central government having joined its main enemy, Convergence and Unio. Convergence in contrast despite having some economic ideas opposed to ERC to forged a greater weight in the secessionist propaganda for years than in their liberal policies, since with this support is shielded before the action of justice against cases such as the theft of 3 % of taxes to the main leaders and families of the dome beginning with the Pujol.

This merger with ERC in a single party took place with the cause of Justice against Arthur Mas in which the money collected by the Catalans was destined to pay the secessionist leaders in their judicial defense for the crimes committed. Part of the Catalan society is an accomplice of these challenges of tax evasion and embezzlement since they have supported these leaders for years. Although it is still not very clear if it is due to ignorance or indoctrination of institutions. As a result, the Junts Pel Si party was formed, whose leaders did not share political ideology apart from the independence movement, the more republican left being mixed with the Catalan bourgeoisie and the more conservative right.

Once the elections were this year, I won the independence formation in number of seats, with the votes also of the anti-system party, CUP, whose populist ideas are not seen favorably by the other parties. Many ideas would leave Catalonia in absolute misery that collides with the ideals of economic concentration of Convergence, which dreams of liberalizing all services and charging for them. Convergence would never allow that a formation of this ilk had any power in the parliament but tensed by the justice was not another to accept, since otherwise several leaders would have been prosecuted and being in the government gives them judicial protection. As Artur Mas could not stand for the elections due to causes of justice entrusted to head the lists Puigdemont, a man little known except in the city where he was mayor.

With all this, the first step would be to raise the famous referendum of its electoral program and that's where the problems came because first it has no competence to do this since it must go through the congress of the deputies where they have only 5% of seats and second would have to make some sense since to do this and they would have to change the Spanish constitution which would be even more complicated. Seeing that it was impossible the leaders made skip the law and go free and used public means to organize and pay for it, carrying a serious crime, apart from the crime of rebellion punishable by 20 years of prison in the penal code. To try not to take that crime they tried to play with the words the day they cooked the results.

These situations are very similar to other situations of militaristic countries and dictatorships of the world and for this reason the European Union showed itself to be the opposite. Other countries that are enemies of Europe, such as Russia, always sympathized with the idea, knowing of the problems that were to arise both economically and socially. Despite having support less than half of the Catalans remained engaged and the response of the state came quite slowly. Due to the ineptitude of Rajoy to take these serious issues, several of the culprits of this theater left the country and got rid of justice and others whose code of ethics is stronger were freely given. This is the case of Oriol Jonqueras, a leader who despite having quite radical ideas on this issue, has been consistent with his actions at all times and has rarely said anything he did not feel. That is why there is a tension between the leaders of the Catalan bourgeoisie like Puigdemont and those on the left who are going to prison, since in the end some have responded with their heads in front and others have fled.

The most affected in this case have been the Catalan banks of the IBEX35, such as Sabadell and Caixabank, but because we live in a globalized world, although some do not want to recognize it, as are those who try to separate themselves from the rest as if the rest were not with them. all the other Spanish banks also fell and therefore other IBEX35 values ​​away from the problems of Catalonia. So much is the globalized economy that the Eurostox also had its fall but if we compare as it was a year ago the German DAX30 we will see how it has been maintained and the IBEX35 has seriously retreated as a 10% more, being paradoxical that Spain presents some bigger growth data than those of Germany.

In the following graph you can see the behavior of Caixaban in relation to the IBEX35.