Atypical year

This year has been one of the years with more events that could influence the stock market of the last 10 years. On the one hand we started with a abysmal crisis in the price of oil that caused the main European indices to fall by an average of 15% due to the existing oversupply. USA was the lowest of the SP500 reaching 2014 levels, down to 1800 however when it turned around and touched ground USA reacted much better to Europe in general. On the other hand the year had not fully recovered from the end of the Chinese growth that in August of 2015 made the world's parks tremble.

Returning to the channel and starting the oil to give signs of exhaustion seller USA would return to previous levels reaching its benchmark the 2000 points. Europe was looking forward to the referendum in England , of which it has been sincere for more than a year. As time progressed, the idea was taken that supporters of continuing in the European Union would win by a small margin but that was assured. The market would react favorably in this sense and the stock markets would rise strongly. However, the result was far from expected, with Brexit supporters winning by a narrow margin of 2%. This would weigh the bags for 1 month until they came to accept the situation. Between the day of the knowledge of results and the next two days the main European indices would fall by 15% even reaching a value lower than that suffered after the crisis of January.
The most affected would be the financial entities and the airlines that have not yet recovered.

Posteriormente del Brexit en verano se producirían las segundas elecciones españolas que darían como claro vencedor a Mariano Rajoy. Sin embargo el recuento de escaños no le daría la mayoría suficiente para poder gobernar y matemáticamente dependería básicamente del adversario histórico que tras no poder llegar al poder por la negativa de Podemos. Un partido nuevo español que representa al sector español más afectado por la crisis de estos años. Esta situación dejaba un sabor agridulce en los mercados, ya que si bien se conseguía que un partido pro-mercado consiguiese un valor aceptable no podría ser envestido y volvía la inestabilidad. Esta vez la situación apenas se reflejó en la bolsa ya que este resultado estaba descontado.
Tras una bandada de resultados políticos y decisiones que no eran buenas para los mercados los índices estuvieron laterales ya a la espera de las elecciones americanas y entonces llego lo que algunos denominaron como el Trumpazo.

Trump won the election against all odds. Despite the fact that here in Europe a favorable result had been deducted from Clinton in the United States the main companies were divided around the two candidates . In the USA, a rally began, which has not yet ended, with the indices reaching historical highs, while in Europe the levels of the beginning of the year have recovered. The following graph shows the main American indices after the victory of Donal Trump.
And especially in Spain since the abstention of the PSOE made Spain had president and enjoyed some stability. On election day in the United States, there was a very large swing in all indices, the volatility reaching a large volume only surpassed by the Brexit as seen in the following chart:
This is a phenomenon that will undoubtedly mark the course of the economy, but on USA elections only last 4 years, Brexit can be a historical change without a possible reversal. Recall also that after the US elections was not time on the part of the losing party to give support to Trump and try to reduce the tension for the good of the country. Thing that in Spain is unthinkable although in this case the PSOE has been able to carry out to perfection. Also Trump would lower his tone and message and he would retract of many the controversial measures that wanted to realize. What most could weigh on the market was Trump's warning to shift the free-market course to a protectionist state very similar to the populist parties that have swarmed Europe in recent times. Parties such as We can either the National Front or the UKIP English or the Italian Five Stars movement. Although all the appointments that Trump has made discard this option. The only thing that would reinforce the domestic market and make multiple investments to relaunch the US economy from the industrial sector.

After the American elections, two important appointments would come, such as the Italian referendum and the FED meeting . Everything was as expected and there was no unexpected change in the market. After the Christmas rally that ended on December 15, calm has returned in markets where the Dow Jones has consolidated the level correcting from almost 20k points to 19.8k. The DAX for its part has consolidated the level of 11,500 and the Ibex 9350. Serving as supports for future growth.

Being optimistic, I estimate that next year the IBEX may be finishing at 11,500 points by the end of 2017 . There will be an initial rise until March-April that will put it at 10,800, then correct and return to the 9500. In October of the year they will return to the values ​​of flood and will end the year in the cited values ​​of 11,500.
The next year prognostic values ​​ will be those of the building materials, construction, industrial and banking .
The most disadvantaged will instead be the utilities, large power companies, and the entire ICT sector .
Even so I do not think they are going to lose value but the difference between these sectors will be very large. Apart from other companies that will continue to benefit from the boom of the global economy will be the airlines and tourism sector, mainly hotel chains.

Global Behavior

If we compare this year with respect to other years we will see that it has been a transition year between a rebound stage. Since 2008 we reached 12,000 points last year and a mature stage of growth that is the cycle that we will see possibly in 2018. This year has begun to materialize in the United States with very low unemployment rates and the beginning of the rise in wages and interest rates. In Europe we are always lagging behind the United States and that is why I totally rule out a rate hike until the first quarter of 2018 or the end of this year.

Spain leads the way in Europe in growth although it is true that we were the most affected by the crisis and more than a growth is a recovery of previous levels. With the current scenario of political stability and a slow recovery in the labor market, and due to our enviable weather conditions growth expectations are very high. However, there are many measures to be taken, especially in the field of the self-employed, to relaunch the economy.

In the United States it seems that the end of the expansive policies has come and the new president of the United States is going to begin expansive policies that are going to bring new projects to his country. An increase of jobs in the industrial sector and the landing of many companies on American soil, among others Spanish, although it is certain that he tried to have the greatest weight fall in American companies.

In Asia, on the other hand, the end of the expansionary policies came last year and it was noticed in the price of raw materials that reached levels not seen in a decade. This, together with the fall in oil prices, created a crisis on a global scale. China is now in a stage of maturity of its economy focusing on boosting its technology companies and the quality of its products rather than quantity. The Chinese middle class has increased exponentially from 100 million Chinese at the beginning of this century to about 600 million that is currently half of the population.

India, on the other hand, continues in an expansionary phase with high inflation and annual growth of over 7%. This may continue for another decade as they have a significant backwardness and inequality. Not only by social classes but also by areas of the country as there are nuclei where there is extreme poverty and others where the middle class reigns. That is why India equities still have a lot of potential.

Equities in other emerging countries such as South America have suffered a huge blow due to the political instability of some countries such as Brazil and Venezuela and the crisis of raw materials. These countries have not managed their capital well and instead of putting it to create a competitive market have been wasted in many respects and also taking into account the high political corruption they suffer.