Monetary policy projection ECB and FED 2017

En diciembre del año 2015 contemplamos la primera subida de tipos de USA en 10 años. Fue una subida mínima pero llevaba un mensaje muy potente en su interior, el del fin de un ciclo. In December 2015 we see the first US rate rise in 10 years. It was a minimal climb but it carried a very powerful message inside, the end of a cycle. In the chart on the right you can see the evolution of the types of the 3 strongest currencies in the world, the dollar, the euro and the pound. It is appreciated how the euro always goes behind the changes of the American currency, like 2 years behind. Since the European market the last century has been subordinate to what happens in the United States, always on a par. So although the measure does not affect us we can always see where we will go in a matter of time.

Due to the growth of the American economy it was almost obligatory that rise, even could be done before but by precaution was postponed. It came from the prediction of two to three uploads this year . However only a rise has been made this year due to global instability with everything that happened in Brexit especially and the uncertainty of the American elections . A premature rise without knowing the outcome of the Brexit could have shot the dollar against the euro in a disproportionate way and have increased the volatility of the markets. This is not what the market likes so it is postponed .

So in December this year Yellen , the president of the Fed, announced the increase of another 0.25% in the types and remarked that next year there will be 3 uploads . These 3 rises were not expected by the market and had not been discounted which made the dollar rise even more. It was also noticed in the market of the gold metal and the silver, lowering its value around 4% in just 2 days.
In the chart we can see the contrast of the dollar index with respect to gold at the time of the announcement.


The biggest gold mining companies were Barrick Gold, Kinross Co, GoldCorp, Alamos GLD, or smaller ones that lost 10% in two days. Banks in turn reacted on the upside. In the big indexes these changes hardly noticed since it was discounted for some time. I predict that next year there will be three climbs and one of them, possibly the last one, will be half a point with which will rise a point in total in 2017.